According to my blackjack appendix 4, the probability of an overall win in blackjack is 42.22%, a tie is 8.48%, and a loss is 49.10%. I'm going to assume you wish to ignore ties for purposes of the streak. In that case, the probability of a win, given a resolved bet, is 46.36%. The probability of winning n. It is a good idea to find the casino with the most favorable House Edge. There is a difference between true odds and what is advertised. Remember, winning and losing cycles are as perennial as the grass. Whether you are playing football, the stock market or Blackjack, submit to losing a most of the time, about 70%.
Ever wondered what the actual numbers are behind blackjack? The odds of winning blackjack are better than any other game in the house, but you need to use an effective strategy to reduce house edge as much as possible. Let us show you the ropes in this total guide to winning blackjack.
Before you start playing this game, it’s vital that you fully understand online blackjack odds. Today we’re going to focus on the probabilities of when you’re choosing between hitting and standing. We have plenty of information to cover so let’s dive right into it.
We’ve inserted the table below to make it much clearer and easier for you to understand. These odds cover the probability of you going bust when choosing an extra card.Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust % |
---|---|
11 | 0% |
12 | 31% |
13 | 39% |
14 | 56% |
15 | 58% |
16 | 62% |
17 | 69% |
18 | 77% |
19 | 85% |
20 | 92% |
21 | 100% |
How To Play Blackjack To Win
This is the million dollar question. Everybody wants to know the answer to how to play blackjack to win? Well, the truth is it’s not quite that easy, but you can definitely reduce the house edge and give yourself the best chance possible.
Blackjack Odds Of Winning
There are a couple of popular blackjack rules that you should always implement in order to increase your chances of winning. Let’s have a closer look.
- Be Aware Of House Edge - Both land-based and online casinos will always have at least a small edge over you, the player. This is simply the nature of the beast and is one of the reasons why you’ll never see a casino going out of business. For example, you’ll have to play first. Therefore, if you go bust, you’ll automatically lose the hand even if the dealer goes bust two seconds after you. Make sure you understand all aspects of the house edge before you start playing.
- Different Variations = Different Rules - Don’t just assume that because you’re playing blackjack all of the rules will be the same as the standard version. If you go in with that mindset it will be a recipe for disaster. There are far too many versions to list here. However, the games you’re most likely to encounter are Blackjack Surrender, Atlantic City Blackjack, Double Exposure Blackjack, and a few others.
- Blackjack Strategies - As with all games, there are several betting systems on the market claiming to give you a better chance of winning. First of all, forget counting cards. Not only is it against house rules but you basically have to be a math genius in order to work out the percentages. However, there are certain legal strategies which can increase your chances - such as basic blackjack strategy. You can also use cheat sheets since the dealer can’t see you.
Blackjack Tips for Beginners
If you’re just starting out in the world of blackjack it can all seem quite confusing. However, don’t worry, we’re here to help you out. We’ve outlined a few blackjack tips for beginners below to help get your journey started.
How To Play Blackjack And Win
- Increase Your Stakes Slowly - Firstly, start playing with small stakes. If you go in all guns blazing on your very first hand and try to win half a million there’s a good chance you’re going to leave the table with your tail between your legs. Respect the game and try to get an understanding of how it works. Blackjack is a fun game to play, our advice would be to play through a minimum of 50 hands on the lowest stake before you start increasing the size of your bet.
- Understand the Percentages - Obviously, the main aim of this game is to get to 21. Therefore, it’s extremely important that you fully understand the odds. For example, if you’re sitting on 18 and you choose to hit there’s a good chance that you’re going to go bust. However, if you’re sitting on 11 or less you literally can’t lose by taking one more hit. Do your research and don’t play blindly. It’ll pay off in the long term.
- Focus On Yourself - It’s easy to make rash decisions based on what other players are doing. For example, if somebody at the table raises the stakes significantly it might send a shiver down your spine. However, it doesn’t really matter what the players around you are doing. You’re playing against the dealer and nobody else. Always keep this in mind before you make any decisions. This is one of our golden rules in regards to blackjack.
Blackjack Odds Chart
If you’re playing at an online casino, a blackjack odds chart can be a handy tool to have. It’ll help you understand the chances of your bet landing. For example, as we mentioned earlier, if you have a pair of aces the advice is to always split your bet. Check out the chart below so that you have a better understanding of how it works.
However, if you’re playing in a real-life casino things may be a little more complicated. We can’t guarantee that the casino will respond positively to you carrying around a chart with winning percentages on it. This will depend entirely on each individual casino and its own set of rules and regulations.
Play Real Money Blackjack
If you want to play real money blackjack then you’ll have tons of options. You’ll find at least one variation at pretty much every online casino.
If you’re interested in enhancing your playing experience and trying something new then we couldn’t recommend live dealer blackjack enough. You’ll feel like you’re in a real-life casino because you’re playing against a live dealer.
Go ahead and check it out for yourself. If you implement everything that we’ve taught you in this review you won’t go far wrong. Best of luck, we hope the blackjack gods will be with you.
Blackjack Odds FAQs
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
There are many factors that will affected your chances of winning a hand of blackjack. Your hand, the dealer's hand - and the rules can all impact the outcome. See our full strategy guide above for more details.
Should I use a blackjack odds chart?
It is certainly a helpful tool to have - and we have a free one you can use above. However, we recommend a blackjack strategy chart that shows you the optimal strategic play for that hand. This will lead you to more fruitful results and reduce the house edge to its minimum.
Is a blackjack odds calculator useful?
In some situations - yes. But once again, a basic strategy chart is more useful as it gives you the best plays possible for what the dealer has.
What is the blackjack games with the best odds?
To find the game with the best odds, we want to look at blackjack games with the best house edge. Single deck games where the dealer stands on soft 17 boast a house edge of just 0.18%. See above for more info on house edge.
Free bonus slots win real money. Blackjack is unlike many other casino games because the player is actively involved in the outcome of his hands (rather than betting on a random event over which he has no influcene). As a result, a player’s chances of winning depend on not only the random outcome of the draw but also upon the decisions he makes during the game—to hit or to stand, to exercise options such as doubling or splitting. Wheel of fortune slots tips.
Chances of Winning Blackjack
Throughout several rounds, the chances of winning each hand will also be skewed by the cards that have been removed from the deck. The player’s net loss or gain (the amount in money, rather than a tally of hands won or lost) over a session will be affected by how much he wagers, and at which times he elects to increase or decrease the wagered amount. Finally, house rules can be imposed to change the parameters of the game and restrict the player’s options.
With all of these factors in effect, it’s not possible to affix a specific number to all situations or all styles of play—but three figures are often cited:
- Most casinos expect each blackjack table to have a hold of about 20%—that is, they expect to be able to keep about 20% of the wagers made. Correspondingly, the average player can expect to lose about 20% of his stake over the course of every session.
- The “core odds” reduce the house’s advantage to 10.99%. Based on the assumption the player will elect to hit or stand by the same criteria as the house, the house will win roughly 10.99% more hands than the player.
- The net odds—which consider the amount of money won or lost rather than the core number of hands, generally work out to an 8.89% advantage to the house (given a two-deck game played by the most common set of rules).
An interesting, if somewhat premature, note on these figures is that the house expects to earn more than double (20% as compared to 8.89%) what the odds would seem to indicate it will and that these expectations generally hold. This demonstrates how the player’s decisions can affect the outcome of the game—and that the average player will lose more than double the mathematically probably amount because of uninformed decisions.
The basic blackjack, intermediate, and advanced blackjack strategies described in the blackjack strategy section of this site can further impact the odds. By using blackjack basic strategy consistently, the player can decrease the house’s advantage to less than 1%. By adding the intermediate and advanced strategies, a player can make the game completely even (hence fair) and, in rare situations, also turn the odds in his favour by a fraction of a percentage.
What are Odds?
In its purest sense, odds are the chances a given outcome will occur given the possible alternatives. The most comfortable metaphor is a coin toss: if a coin is tossed in a genuinely random fashion (nothing influences the outcome), it is just as likely to come up heads as tails. If it is tossed ten times, you can expect it to come up heads five times, and tails five times.
Granted, it is possible, even with true randomness, that the toss will result in heads ten times in a row—which is why odds consider likely rather than specific outcomes. In the long run, the mathematical probability will bear itself out in practice—if a coin is tossed 1,000 times, it is likely to come up heads 500 times (though, in practice, it will be plus or minus a few). Thus, it’s not necessary to spend several years flipping a coin million of times to determine the likely outcomes or rig a supercomputer to simulate the same—though some stubbornly have.
Casino games are carefully designed to exploit the odds, always taking advantage for the house: a player will never be paid a wager that is strictly equal to the true odds. A good example of this practice is roulette, in which a wager on a single number pays 35 to 1 even though the odds of winning are 1 in 37.
What are the odds of winning blackjack
Blackjack, however, foils the computation of odds based on random events because there are a number of influences that prevent it from being completely random—most significantly the player’s choices during the course of the game. In such cases, the odds are set to turn a reasonable profit from the average player. (Actually, they’re set to turn a reasonable profit from the reasonable intelligent player, an exorbitant one from the average player, and flat-out milk a “sucker.”) This is why an attentive player who makes the right decisions can come out ahead.
The odds of the hand’s outcome are determined not only by the initial hand dealt and by the number of hits that are added. This can vary greatly, because a player can take as many or as few as he desires—a player may opt to hit every hand he is dealt until it exceeds 21 and lose 100% of the time.
We can, however, be reasonably certain of the dealer’s behavior, as he is forced to play by certain rules, regardless of his instincts, superstitions, or desires. Most often, the rules require the dealer to stop taking hits when his hand reaches a total of seventeen or greater, and no sooner. Before the cards are dealt, it’s possible to predict the chances that the dealer’s hand will have the following outcomes.
Blackjack win percentage
All the totals for hands remain equal—so a player’s 20 will beat a dealer’s 19 equally as often as a dealer’s 20 beats a player’s 19, and the dealer will bust as often as the player while the other stands on a viable hand. Dangerous beauty free slots. The only remaining difference is that the dealer will bust of the instances in which the player busts—which is 33.15% likely to happen in 33.15% of the time, for a core odds value of 10.99% of all hands played.
17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | BUST |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14.61% | 13.87% | 13.27% | 18.12% | 6.99% | 33.15% |
These odds are computed according to mathematical probabilities. More detailed information is available on the blackjack hand calculator post.
The outcome of the player’s hand, meanwhile, will depend on the way his hands are played. If he chooses exactly the same course as the dealer, the outcome of his hands will be exactly the same as is shown above. If he plays according to a different set of rules, the results will be different, and by comparing the two tables, that player’s individual likelihood of winning can be computed. If however, the player is erratic, and he chooses to play his hands differently each time with no predictable rationale, no mathematical model can be used to compute his chances of winning.
Determining the core odds
The “core odds” of the game assume that the player will follow the house rules for hitting his hands. In this example, to stop taking hits when his hand reaches a total of seventeen or greater, and no sooner. In this case, all things seem to be equal, and the player should have a 50% chance of winning or losing each hand. This would be true only if the player’s wager was returned the dealer busts his hand but one rule of the game that is never varied is that a player who busts loses his wager, even if the dealer busts afterward.
Again, the core odds shown here apply only to a player who strictly adheres to the same rules as the dealer in playing his hands, which is clearly not the best approach. The strategy section of this site will demonstrate a system that can virtually eliminate the house’s advantage over the player—and the intermediate and advanced sections will turn the tables further in the player’s advantage.